Olimpia Grudziądz 0–4 Sokół Ostróda: Result & Stats

Olimpia Grudziądz

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 0

Sokół Ostróda

9/19/2020

II Liga - East · Round 4Stadion Miejski im. Bronisława Malinowskiego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Olimpia Grudziądz51%

×Draw23%

Sokół Ostróda26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Olimpia GrudziądzExpected goals in this matchSokół Ostróda

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.78

1.20

Olimpia Grudziądz

1.78

Sokół Ostróda

1.20

Olimpia Grudziądz creates 48% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 35 away

1.45

creates per match

1.06

1.34

allows per match

2.11

creates per match

Olimpia Grudziądz

1.45

Sokół Ostróda

1.06

allows per match

Olimpia Grudziądz

1.34

Sokół Ostróda

2.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Olimpia Grudziądz+0.00on par

Sokół Ostróda+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olimpia Grudziądz ↓

Sokół Ostróda →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Olimpia Grudziądz or draw

74%

Olimpia Grudziądz or Sokół Ostróda

77%

Draw or Sokół Ostróda

49%

Winning margin

Olimpia Grudziądz wins by 2+

28%

Sokół Ostróda wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Olimpia Grudziądz 1+ goals

83%

Olimpia Grudziądz 2+ goals

53%

Olimpia Grudziądz 3+ goals

26%

Sokół Ostróda 1+ goals

70%

Sokół Ostróda 2+ goals

34%

Sokół Ostróda 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Olimpia Grudziądz (draw refunded)

66%

Sokół Ostróda (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olimpia Grudziądz at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.34 · 71 matches

Sokół Ostróda away — creates 1.06, concedes 2.11 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olimpia Grudziądz attack 1.45 + Sokół Ostróda defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.78

Sokół Ostróda attack 1.06 + Olimpia Grudziądz defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Olimpia Grudziądz scores more

51%

level

23%

Sokół Ostróda scores more

26%

Olimpia Grudziądz at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Olimpia Grudziądz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff