Olimpia Grudziądz 3–1 Kalisz: Result & Stats

Olimpia Grudziądz

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Kalisz

4/11/2026

II Liga - East · Round 27Stadion Miejski im. Bronisława Malinowskiego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Olimpia Grudziądz40%

×Draw26%

Kalisz34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Olimpia GrudziądzExpected goals in this matchKalisz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

1.25

Olimpia Grudziądz

1.37

Kalisz

1.25

Olimpia Grudziądz creates 10% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 104 away

1.45

creates per match

1.17

1.34

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Olimpia Grudziądz

1.45

Kalisz

1.17

allows per match

Olimpia Grudziądz

1.34

Kalisz

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Olimpia Grudziądz+0.00on par

Kalisz+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olimpia Grudziądz ↓

Kalisz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Olimpia Grudziądz or draw

66%

Olimpia Grudziądz or Kalisz

74%

Draw or Kalisz

60%

Winning margin

Olimpia Grudziądz wins by 2+

18%

Kalisz wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Olimpia Grudziądz 1+ goals

75%

Olimpia Grudziądz 2+ goals

40%

Olimpia Grudziądz 3+ goals

16%

Kalisz 1+ goals

71%

Kalisz 2+ goals

36%

Kalisz 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Olimpia Grudziądz (draw refunded)

54%

Kalisz (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olimpia Grudziądz at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.34 · 71 matches

Kalisz away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.29 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olimpia Grudziądz attack 1.45 + Kalisz defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.37

Kalisz attack 1.17 + Olimpia Grudziądz defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Olimpia Grudziądz scores more

40%

level

26%

Kalisz scores more

34%

Olimpia Grudziądz at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Olimpia Grudziądz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff