Olimpia Grudziądz 1–2 Garbarnia Kraków

Olimpia Grudziądz

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Garbarnia Kraków

José Embaló 21' (pen)

B. Wacławek 84'

G. Marszalik 58'

11/28/2020

II Liga - East · Round 15Stadion Miejski im. Bronisława Malinowskiego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Olimpia Grudziądz41%

×Draw25%

Garbarnia Kraków34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Olimpia GrudziądzExpected goals in this matchGarbarnia Kraków

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.31

Olimpia Grudziądz

1.46

Garbarnia Kraków

1.31

Olimpia Grudziądz creates 11% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 68 away

1.45

creates per match

1.28

1.34

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Olimpia Grudziądz

1.45

Garbarnia Kraków

1.28

allows per match

Olimpia Grudziądz

1.34

Garbarnia Kraków

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Olimpia Grudziądz+0.00on par

Garbarnia Kraków+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olimpia Grudziądz ↓

Garbarnia Kraków →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Olimpia Grudziądz or draw

66%

Olimpia Grudziądz or Garbarnia Kraków

75%

Draw or Garbarnia Kraków

59%

Winning margin

Olimpia Grudziądz wins by 2+

20%

Garbarnia Kraków wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Olimpia Grudziądz 1+ goals

77%

Olimpia Grudziądz 2+ goals

43%

Olimpia Grudziądz 3+ goals

18%

Garbarnia Kraków 1+ goals

73%

Garbarnia Kraków 2+ goals

38%

Garbarnia Kraków 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Olimpia Grudziądz (draw refunded)

55%

Garbarnia Kraków (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olimpia Grudziądz at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.34 · 71 matches

Garbarnia Kraków away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.47 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olimpia Grudziądz attack 1.45 + Garbarnia Kraków defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.46

Garbarnia Kraków attack 1.28 + Olimpia Grudziądz defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Olimpia Grudziądz scores more

41%

level

25%

Garbarnia Kraków scores more

34%

Olimpia Grudziądz at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Olimpia Grudziądz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'

José EmbalóPenalty

46'

B. Wacławek← D. Malik

58'

G. Marszalik

63'

P. Janczukowicz← K. Janiak

63'

M. Graczyk← Omid Popalzay

78'

A. Kwiatkowski← G. Gulczyński

84'

B. Wacławek

88'

P. Leszczyński← O. Kalenik

88'

M. Gabor← José Embaló

90+2'

D. Andronic

90'

M. Kardas← J. Bąk

Olimpia

Garbarnia

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Embaló

Manager: P. Cretti

63'▲P. Janczukowicz←▼K. Janiak

63'▲M. Graczyk←▼Omid Popalzay

78'▲A. Kwiatkowski←▼G. Gulczyński

88'▲P. Leszczyński←▼O. Kalenik

88'▲M. Gabor←▼José Embaló

Olimpia Grudziądz substitutes

JanczukowiczGraczykKwiatkowskiLeszczyńskiGabor

Manager: L. Surma

46'▲B. Wacławek←▼D. Malik

90'▲M. Kardas←▼J. Bąk

Garbarnia Kraków substitutes

WacławekKardas

II Liga - East: Olimpia Grudziądz 1–2 Garbarnia Kraków

Garbarnia Kraków beat Olimpia Grudziądz 2-1 in II Liga - East on November 28, 2020.

Goals: José Embaló (21' pen), G. Marszalik (58'), B. Wacławek (84').

The match was played at Stadion Miejski im. Bronisława Malinowskiego in Grudziądz.

Olimpia Grudziądz vs Garbarnia Kraków — II Liga - East 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

II Liga - East: Olimpia Grudziądz 1–2 Garbarnia Kraków