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Olimpia Elbląg vs Zagłębie Lubin II — II Liga - East 2019

Olimpia Elbląg
Olimpia Elbląg
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Zagłębie Lubin II
Zagłębie Lubin II
5/13/2023II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 31Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Olimpia Elbląg46%
×Draw25%
Zagłębie Lubin II29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olimpia Elbląg
1.59
Zagłębie Lubin II
1.21

Olimpia Elbląg creates 31% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 52 away

creates per match

Olimpia Elbląg
1.20
Zagłębie Lubin II
1.21

allows per match

Olimpia Elbląg
1.20
Zagłębie Lubin II
1.98

finishing

Olimpia Elbląg+0.00on par
Zagłębie Lubin II+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olimpia Elbląg ↓

Zagłębie Lubin II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Olimpia Elbląg or draw
71%
Olimpia Elbląg or Zagłębie Lubin II
75%
Draw or Zagłębie Lubin II
54%

Winning margin

Olimpia Elbląg wins by 2+
24%
Zagłębie Lubin II wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Olimpia Elbląg 1+ goals
80%
Olimpia Elbląg 2+ goals
47%
Olimpia Elbląg 3+ goals
21%
Zagłębie Lubin II 1+ goals
70%
Zagłębie Lubin II 2+ goals
34%
Zagłębie Lubin II 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Olimpia Elbląg (draw refunded)
61%
Zagłębie Lubin II (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olimpia Elbląg at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.20 · 103 matches

Zagłębie Lubin II away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.98 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olimpia Elbląg attack 1.20 + Zagłębie Lubin II defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.59

Zagłębie Lubin II attack 1.21 + Olimpia Elbląg defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Olimpia Elbląg scores more
46%
level
25%
Zagłębie Lubin II scores more
29%

Olimpia Elbląg at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Olimpia Elbląg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Olimpia Elbląg vs Zagłębie Lubin II

Zagłębie Lubin II beat Olimpia Elbląg 1-0 in II Liga - East on May 13, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Elbląg.