Olimpia Elbląg vs Rekord Bielsko-Biała — II Liga - East 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 33+ matches
Olimpia Elbląg38%
Rekord Bielsko-Biała37%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 103 home / 33 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over54
- Under46
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes58
- No42
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Olimpia Elbląg ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Olimpia Elbląg at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.20 · 103 matches
Rekord Bielsko-Biała away — creates 1.61, concedes 1.67 · 33 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Olimpia Elbląg attack 1.20 + Rekord Bielsko-Biała defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.44
Rekord Bielsko-Biała attack 1.61 + Olimpia Elbląg defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.41
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 38%?"
Olimpia Elbląg at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 38% does not mean "Olimpia Elbląg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Rekord Bielsko-Biała substitutes
Head to Head
2 previous meetings · small sample
Unia Skierniewice
Warta Poznań
Olimpia Grudziądz
Podbeskidzie
Sandecja Nowy Sącz
Podhale Nowy Targ
Śląsk Wrocław II
Chojniczanka Chojnice
Hutnik Kraków
Resovia Rzeszów
Świt Skolwin
Stal Stalowa WolaRekord Bielsko-Biała
Sokół Kleczew
Kalisz
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
ŁKS Łódź II
Jastrzębie
Górnik Polkowice
KSZO 1929
Łomża
LuzinoIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Olimpia Elbląg host Rekord Bielsko-Biała on Saturday, 21 September 2024 at 14:00. The match is part of the II Liga - East 2026/2027 season.
Olimpia Elbląg 2 – 4 Rekord Bielsko-Biała
Rekord Bielsko-Biała beat Olimpia Elbląg 4-2 in II Liga - East on September 21, 2024.
Goals: J. Ciućka (3', 90+5'), D. Świderski (50' pen), K. Szczudliński (66'), M. Klichowicz (73'), M. Kuzimski (89').
The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Elbląg.