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Olimpia Elbląg vs Pogoń Siedlce — II Liga - East 2019

Olimpia Elbląg
Olimpia Elbląg
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Pogoń Siedlce
Pogoń Siedlce
9/20/2023II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 8Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Olimpia Elbląg38%
×Draw26%
Pogoń Siedlce37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olimpia Elbląg
1.39
Pogoń Siedlce
1.36

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 103 home / 86 away

creates per match

Olimpia Elbląg
1.20
Pogoń Siedlce
1.52

allows per match

Olimpia Elbląg
1.20
Pogoń Siedlce
1.58

finishing

Olimpia Elbląg+0.00on par
Pogoń Siedlce+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olimpia Elbląg ↓

Pogoń Siedlce →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Olimpia Elbląg or draw
63%
Olimpia Elbląg or Pogoń Siedlce
74%
Draw or Pogoń Siedlce
62%

Winning margin

Olimpia Elbląg wins by 2+
17%
Pogoń Siedlce wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Olimpia Elbląg 1+ goals
75%
Olimpia Elbląg 2+ goals
40%
Olimpia Elbląg 3+ goals
16%
Pogoń Siedlce 1+ goals
74%
Pogoń Siedlce 2+ goals
39%
Pogoń Siedlce 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Olimpia Elbląg (draw refunded)
51%
Pogoń Siedlce (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olimpia Elbląg at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.20 · 103 matches

Pogoń Siedlce away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.58 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olimpia Elbląg attack 1.20 + Pogoń Siedlce defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.39

Pogoń Siedlce attack 1.52 + Olimpia Elbląg defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Olimpia Elbląg scores more
38%
level
26%
Pogoń Siedlce scores more
37%

Olimpia Elbląg at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Olimpia Elbląg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

II Liga - East: Olimpia Elbląg 1–0 Pogoń Siedlce

Olimpia Elbląg beat Pogoń Siedlce 1-0 in II Liga - East on September 20, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Elbląg.