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Olimpia Elbląg vs Kotwica Kołobrzeg — II Liga - East 2019

Olimpia Elbląg
Olimpia Elbląg
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Kotwica Kołobrzeg
Kotwica Kołobrzeg
10/1/2022II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 13Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Olimpia Elbląg35%
×Draw25%
Kotwica Kołobrzeg40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olimpia Elbląg
1.35
Kotwica Kołobrzeg
1.46

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 103 home / 34 away

creates per match

Olimpia Elbląg
1.20
Kotwica Kołobrzeg
1.71

allows per match

Olimpia Elbląg
1.20
Kotwica Kołobrzeg
1.50

finishing

Olimpia Elbląg+0.00on par
Kotwica Kołobrzeg+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olimpia Elbląg ↓

Kotwica Kołobrzeg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Olimpia Elbląg or draw
60%
Olimpia Elbląg or Kotwica Kołobrzeg
75%
Draw or Kotwica Kołobrzeg
65%

Winning margin

Olimpia Elbląg wins by 2+
16%
Kotwica Kołobrzeg wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Olimpia Elbląg 1+ goals
74%
Olimpia Elbląg 2+ goals
39%
Olimpia Elbląg 3+ goals
15%
Kotwica Kołobrzeg 1+ goals
77%
Kotwica Kołobrzeg 2+ goals
43%
Kotwica Kołobrzeg 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Olimpia Elbląg (draw refunded)
47%
Kotwica Kołobrzeg (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olimpia Elbląg at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.20 · 103 matches

Kotwica Kołobrzeg away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.50 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olimpia Elbląg attack 1.20 + Kotwica Kołobrzeg defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.35

Kotwica Kołobrzeg attack 1.71 + Olimpia Elbląg defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Olimpia Elbląg scores more
35%
level
25%
Kotwica Kołobrzeg scores more
40%

Kotwica Kołobrzeg at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Kotwica Kołobrzeg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

II Liga - East: Olimpia Elbląg 2–0 Kotwica Kołobrzeg

Olimpia Elbląg beat Kotwica Kołobrzeg 2-0 in II Liga - East on October 1, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Elbląg.