Olimpia Elbląg 2–0 Jagiellonia II: Result & Stats

Olimpia Elbląg

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Jagiellonia II

8/23/2025

III Liga - Group 1 · Group I - 4Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Olimpia Elbląg36%

×Draw23%

Jagiellonia II41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Olimpia ElblągExpected goals in this matchJagiellonia II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.65

Olimpia Elbląg

1.54

Jagiellonia II

1.65

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 103 away

1.41

creates per match

1.48

1.82

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Olimpia Elbląg

1.41

Jagiellonia II

1.48

allows per match

Olimpia Elbląg

1.82

Jagiellonia II

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Olimpia Elbląg+0.00on par

Jagiellonia II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olimpia Elbląg ↓

Jagiellonia II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Olimpia Elbląg or draw

59%

Olimpia Elbląg or Jagiellonia II

77%

Draw or Jagiellonia II

64%

Winning margin

Olimpia Elbląg wins by 2+

17%

Jagiellonia II wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Olimpia Elbląg 1+ goals

79%

Olimpia Elbląg 2+ goals

45%

Olimpia Elbląg 3+ goals

20%

Jagiellonia II 1+ goals

81%

Jagiellonia II 2+ goals

49%

Jagiellonia II 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Olimpia Elbląg (draw refunded)

47%

Jagiellonia II (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olimpia Elbląg at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.82 · 17 matches

Jagiellonia II away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.67 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olimpia Elbląg attack 1.41 + Jagiellonia II defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.54

Jagiellonia II attack 1.48 + Olimpia Elbląg defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Olimpia Elbląg scores more

36%

level

23%

Jagiellonia II scores more

41%

Jagiellonia II at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Jagiellonia II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff