Olimpia Elbląg 0–0 Hutnik Kraków: Result & Stats

Olimpia Elbląg

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Hutnik Kraków

5/4/2024

II Liga - East · Round 31Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

Olimpia Elbląg44%

×Draw26%

Hutnik Kraków29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Olimpia ElblągExpected goals in this matchHutnik Kraków

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.12

Olimpia Elbląg

1.44

Hutnik Kraków

1.12

Olimpia Elbląg creates 29% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 102 away

1.20

creates per match

1.04

1.20

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Olimpia Elbląg

1.20

Hutnik Kraków

1.04

allows per match

Olimpia Elbląg

1.20

Hutnik Kraków

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Olimpia Elbląg+0.00on par

Hutnik Kraków+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olimpia Elbląg ↓

Hutnik Kraków →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Olimpia Elbląg or draw

71%

Olimpia Elbląg or Hutnik Kraków

74%

Draw or Hutnik Kraków

56%

Winning margin

Olimpia Elbląg wins by 2+

21%

Hutnik Kraków wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Olimpia Elbląg 1+ goals

76%

Olimpia Elbląg 2+ goals

42%

Olimpia Elbląg 3+ goals

18%

Hutnik Kraków 1+ goals

67%

Hutnik Kraków 2+ goals

31%

Hutnik Kraków 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Olimpia Elbląg (draw refunded)

60%

Hutnik Kraków (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olimpia Elbląg at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.20 · 103 matches

Hutnik Kraków away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.67 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olimpia Elbląg attack 1.20 + Hutnik Kraków defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.44

Hutnik Kraków attack 1.04 + Olimpia Elbląg defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Olimpia Elbląg scores more

44%

level

26%

Hutnik Kraków scores more

29%

Olimpia Elbląg at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Olimpia Elbląg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'

P. Kieliś← I. Tarasovs

26'

31'

45+1'

45+2'

45+2'

53'

60'

K. Filipczyk← M. Stefaniak

62'

B. Mruk

69'

K. Jóźwicki← D. Danilczyk

69'

Y. Senkevich← D. Kozera

83'

J. Marcinkowski

90'

M. Głogowski← K. Lelek

Olimpia

Hutnik

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: S. Letniowski

60'▲K. Filipczyk←▼M. Stefaniak

69'▲K. Jóźwicki←▼D. Danilczyk

69'▲Y. Senkevich←▼D. Kozera

Olimpia Elbląg substitutes

FilipczykJóźwickiSenkevich

Manager: M. Musiał

21'▲P. Kieliś←▼I. Tarasovs

26'▲S. Chmiel←▼M. Wróbel

90'▲M. Głogowski←▼K. Lelek

Hutnik Kraków substitutes

KieliśChmielGłogowski

II Liga - East: Olimpia Elbląg 0–0 Hutnik Kraków

Olimpia Elbląg and Hutnik Kraków drew 0-0 in II Liga - East on May 4, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Elbląg.

Olimpia Elbląg vs Hutnik Kraków — II Liga - East 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

II Liga - East: Olimpia Elbląg 0–0 Hutnik Kraków