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Olimpia Cluj W vs Universitatea Alexandria W — Liga 1 Feminin 2020

Olimpia Cluj W
Olimpia Cluj W
FT
9 – 1
Universitatea Alexandria W
Universitatea Alexandria W
5/15/2022Liga 1 FemininLiga 1 Feminin · Championship Round - 8Stadion Comunal Arena Iclod

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Olimpia Cluj W65%
×Draw16%
Universitatea Alexandria W19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olimpia Cluj W
3.35
Universitatea Alexandria W
1.85

Olimpia Cluj W creates 81% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 45 away

creates per match

Olimpia Cluj W
3.72
Universitatea Alexandria W
2.69

allows per match

Olimpia Cluj W
1.01
Universitatea Alexandria W
2.98

finishing

Olimpia Cluj W+0.00on par
Universitatea Alexandria W+0.00on par

Total goals

88%Over
  • Over88
  • Under12

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

81%Yes
  • Yes81
  • No19

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olimpia Cluj W ↓

Universitatea Alexandria W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–02%
1–14%
1–23%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–03%
4–16%
4–25%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (7%) · grid covers 77% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
88%12%3.5
75%25%4.5
57%43%

Double chance

Olimpia Cluj W or draw
81%
Olimpia Cluj W or Universitatea Alexandria W
84%
Draw or Universitatea Alexandria W
35%

Winning margin

Olimpia Cluj W wins by 2+
46%
Universitatea Alexandria W wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Olimpia Cluj W 1+ goals
96%
Olimpia Cluj W 2+ goals
84%
Olimpia Cluj W 3+ goals
63%
Universitatea Alexandria W 1+ goals
84%
Universitatea Alexandria W 2+ goals
55%
Universitatea Alexandria W 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Olimpia Cluj W (draw refunded)
77%
Universitatea Alexandria W (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
77%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olimpia Cluj W at home — creates 3.72, concedes 1.01 · 71 matches

Universitatea Alexandria W away — creates 2.69, concedes 2.98 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olimpia Cluj W attack 3.72 + Universitatea Alexandria W defence 2.98 → ÷2 → 3.35

Universitatea Alexandria W attack 2.69 + Olimpia Cluj W defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Olimpia Cluj W scores more
65%
level
16%
Universitatea Alexandria W scores more
19%

Olimpia Cluj W at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Olimpia Cluj W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Olimpia Cluj W vs Universitatea Alexandria W

Olimpia Cluj W beat Universitatea Alexandria W 9-1 in Liga 1 Feminin on May 15, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Comunal Arena Iclod in Iclod.