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Olimpia Cluj W vs Spartak Myjava W — UEFA Champions League Women 2019

Olimpia Cluj W
Olimpia Cluj Wadvanced
FT
6 – 2
HT: 4 – 1
Spartak Myjava W
Spartak Myjava W
9/6/2023UEFA Champions League WomenUEFA Champions League Women · 1st Round - Semi-finalsStadionul Municipal Victoria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Olimpia Cluj W47%
×Draw20%
Spartak Myjava W33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olimpia Cluj W
2.31
Spartak Myjava W
1.94

Olimpia Cluj W creates 19% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 8 away

creates per match

Olimpia Cluj W
1.38
Spartak Myjava W
1.25

allows per match

Olimpia Cluj W
2.63
Spartak Myjava W
3.25

finishing

Olimpia Cluj W+0.00on par
Spartak Myjava W+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olimpia Cluj W ↓

Spartak Myjava W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
61%39%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

Olimpia Cluj W or draw
67%
Olimpia Cluj W or Spartak Myjava W
80%
Draw or Spartak Myjava W
53%

Winning margin

Olimpia Cluj W wins by 2+
28%
Spartak Myjava W wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Olimpia Cluj W 1+ goals
90%
Olimpia Cluj W 2+ goals
67%
Olimpia Cluj W 3+ goals
40%
Spartak Myjava W 1+ goals
86%
Spartak Myjava W 2+ goals
58%
Spartak Myjava W 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Olimpia Cluj W (draw refunded)
58%
Spartak Myjava W (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
71%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olimpia Cluj W at home — creates 1.38, concedes 2.63 · 8 matches

Spartak Myjava W away — creates 1.25, concedes 3.25 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olimpia Cluj W attack 1.38 + Spartak Myjava W defence 3.25 → ÷2 → 2.31

Spartak Myjava W attack 1.25 + Olimpia Cluj W defence 2.63 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Olimpia Cluj W scores more
47%
level
20%
Spartak Myjava W scores more
33%

Olimpia Cluj W at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Olimpia Cluj W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Champions League Women: Olimpia Cluj W 6–2 Spartak Myjava W

Olimpia Cluj W beat Spartak Myjava W 6-2 in UEFA Champions League Women on September 6, 2023.

The match was played at Stadionul Municipal Victoria in Alba Iulia.