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Olimpia Cluj W vs Breznica W — UEFA Champions League Women 2019

Olimpia Cluj W
Olimpia Cluj W
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Breznica W
Breznica W
8/10/2019UEFA Champions League WomenUEFA Champions League Women · Qualifying Round - 2Stadion pod Malim brdom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Olimpia Cluj W49%
×Draw21%
Breznica W30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olimpia Cluj W
2.09
Breznica W
1.61

Olimpia Cluj W creates 30% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 5 away

creates per match

Olimpia Cluj W
1.38
Breznica W
0.60

allows per match

Olimpia Cluj W
2.63
Breznica W
2.80

finishing

Olimpia Cluj W+0.00on par
Breznica W+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olimpia Cluj W ↓

Breznica W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Olimpia Cluj W or draw
70%
Olimpia Cluj W or Breznica W
79%
Draw or Breznica W
51%

Winning margin

Olimpia Cluj W wins by 2+
28%
Breznica W wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Olimpia Cluj W 1+ goals
88%
Olimpia Cluj W 2+ goals
62%
Olimpia Cluj W 3+ goals
34%
Breznica W 1+ goals
80%
Breznica W 2+ goals
48%
Breznica W 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Olimpia Cluj W (draw refunded)
62%
Breznica W (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olimpia Cluj W at home — creates 1.38, concedes 2.63 · 8 matches

Breznica W away — creates 0.60, concedes 2.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olimpia Cluj W attack 1.38 + Breznica W defence 2.80 → ÷2 → 2.09

Breznica W attack 0.60 + Olimpia Cluj W defence 2.63 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Olimpia Cluj W scores more
49%
level
21%
Breznica W scores more
30%

Olimpia Cluj W at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Olimpia Cluj W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Champions League Women: Olimpia Cluj W 2–3 Breznica W

Breznica W beat Olimpia Cluj W 3-2 in UEFA Champions League Women on August 10, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion pod Malim brdom in Petrovac na Moru.