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Olimp-Dolgoprudny II vs Znamya Truda — Second League - Group 2 2020

Olimp-Dolgoprudny II
Olimp-Dolgoprudny II
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Znamya Truda
Znamya Truda
11/10/2021Second League - Group 2Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 21Stadion Salyut

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Olimp-Dolgoprudny II47%
×Draw26%
Znamya Truda27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olimp-Dolgoprudny II
1.48
Znamya Truda
1.07

Olimp-Dolgoprudny II creates 38% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 68 away

creates per match

Olimp-Dolgoprudny II
1.36
Znamya Truda
1.07

allows per match

Olimp-Dolgoprudny II
1.07
Znamya Truda
1.59

finishing

Olimp-Dolgoprudny II+0.00on par
Znamya Truda+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olimp-Dolgoprudny II ↓

Znamya Truda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Olimp-Dolgoprudny II or draw
73%
Olimp-Dolgoprudny II or Znamya Truda
74%
Draw or Znamya Truda
53%

Winning margin

Olimp-Dolgoprudny II wins by 2+
23%
Znamya Truda wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Olimp-Dolgoprudny II 1+ goals
77%
Olimp-Dolgoprudny II 2+ goals
43%
Olimp-Dolgoprudny II 3+ goals
19%
Znamya Truda 1+ goals
66%
Znamya Truda 2+ goals
29%
Znamya Truda 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Olimp-Dolgoprudny II (draw refunded)
63%
Znamya Truda (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olimp-Dolgoprudny II at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.07 · 14 matches

Znamya Truda away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.59 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olimp-Dolgoprudny II attack 1.36 + Znamya Truda defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.48

Znamya Truda attack 1.07 + Olimp-Dolgoprudny II defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Olimp-Dolgoprudny II scores more
47%
level
26%
Znamya Truda scores more
27%

Olimp-Dolgoprudny II at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Olimp-Dolgoprudny II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Olimp-Dolgoprudny II vs Znamya Truda

Olimp-Dolgoprudny II beat Znamya Truda 3-0 in Second League - Group 2 on November 10, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Salyut in Dolgoprudny.