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Olimp-Dolgoprudny II vs Khimik Dzerzhinsk — Second League - Group 2 2020

Olimp-Dolgoprudny II
Olimp-Dolgoprudny II
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Khimik Dzerzhinsk
Khimik Dzerzhinsk
10/4/2021Second League - Group 2Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 14Stadion Salyut

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Olimp-Dolgoprudny II46%
×Draw25%
Khimik Dzerzhinsk29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olimp-Dolgoprudny II
1.58
Khimik Dzerzhinsk
1.21

Olimp-Dolgoprudny II creates 31% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 38 away

creates per match

Olimp-Dolgoprudny II
1.36
Khimik Dzerzhinsk
1.34

allows per match

Olimp-Dolgoprudny II
1.07
Khimik Dzerzhinsk
1.79

finishing

Olimp-Dolgoprudny II+0.00on par
Khimik Dzerzhinsk+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olimp-Dolgoprudny II ↓

Khimik Dzerzhinsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Olimp-Dolgoprudny II or draw
71%
Olimp-Dolgoprudny II or Khimik Dzerzhinsk
75%
Draw or Khimik Dzerzhinsk
54%

Winning margin

Olimp-Dolgoprudny II wins by 2+
23%
Khimik Dzerzhinsk wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Olimp-Dolgoprudny II 1+ goals
79%
Olimp-Dolgoprudny II 2+ goals
47%
Olimp-Dolgoprudny II 3+ goals
21%
Khimik Dzerzhinsk 1+ goals
70%
Khimik Dzerzhinsk 2+ goals
34%
Khimik Dzerzhinsk 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Olimp-Dolgoprudny II (draw refunded)
61%
Khimik Dzerzhinsk (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olimp-Dolgoprudny II at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.07 · 14 matches

Khimik Dzerzhinsk away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.79 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olimp-Dolgoprudny II attack 1.36 + Khimik Dzerzhinsk defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.58

Khimik Dzerzhinsk attack 1.34 + Olimp-Dolgoprudny II defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Olimp-Dolgoprudny II scores more
46%
level
25%
Khimik Dzerzhinsk scores more
29%

Olimp-Dolgoprudny II at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Olimp-Dolgoprudny II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 2: Olimp-Dolgoprudny II 1–1 Khimik Dzerzhinsk

Olimp-Dolgoprudny II and Khimik Dzerzhinsk drew 1-1 in Second League - Group 2 on October 4, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Salyut in Dolgoprudny.