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Olimp-Dolgoprudny II vs Baltika BFU — Second League - Group 2 2020

Olimp-Dolgoprudny II
Olimp-Dolgoprudny II
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Baltika BFU
Baltika BFU
4/16/2022Second League - Group 2Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 2nd Phase - 3Stadion Salyut

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Olimp-Dolgoprudny II42%
×Draw27%
Baltika BFU31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olimp-Dolgoprudny II
1.39
Baltika BFU
1.16

Olimp-Dolgoprudny II creates 20% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 53 away

creates per match

Olimp-Dolgoprudny II
1.36
Baltika BFU
1.25

allows per match

Olimp-Dolgoprudny II
1.07
Baltika BFU
1.42

finishing

Olimp-Dolgoprudny II+0.00on par
Baltika BFU+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olimp-Dolgoprudny II ↓

Baltika BFU →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Olimp-Dolgoprudny II or draw
69%
Olimp-Dolgoprudny II or Baltika BFU
73%
Draw or Baltika BFU
58%

Winning margin

Olimp-Dolgoprudny II wins by 2+
20%
Baltika BFU wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Olimp-Dolgoprudny II 1+ goals
75%
Olimp-Dolgoprudny II 2+ goals
40%
Olimp-Dolgoprudny II 3+ goals
16%
Baltika BFU 1+ goals
69%
Baltika BFU 2+ goals
32%
Baltika BFU 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Olimp-Dolgoprudny II (draw refunded)
57%
Baltika BFU (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olimp-Dolgoprudny II at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.07 · 14 matches

Baltika BFU away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.42 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olimp-Dolgoprudny II attack 1.36 + Baltika BFU defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.39

Baltika BFU attack 1.25 + Olimp-Dolgoprudny II defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Olimp-Dolgoprudny II scores more
42%
level
27%
Baltika BFU scores more
31%

Olimp-Dolgoprudny II at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Olimp-Dolgoprudny II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 2: Olimp-Dolgoprudny II 2–2 Baltika BFU

Olimp-Dolgoprudny II and Baltika BFU drew 2-2 in Second League - Group 2 on April 16, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Salyut in Dolgoprudny.