Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Olhanense vs Moncarapachense — Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group H 2020

Olhanense
Olhanense
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Moncarapachense
Moncarapachense
11/29/2020Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group HCampeonato de Portugal Prio - Group H · Group H - 7Estádio José Arcanjo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Olhanense41%
×Draw28%
Moncarapachense31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olhanense
1.25
Moncarapachense
1.05

Olhanense creates 19% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 10 away

creates per match

Olhanense
1.40
Moncarapachense
1.20

allows per match

Olhanense
0.90
Moncarapachense
1.10

finishing

Olhanense+0.00on par
Moncarapachense+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olhanense ↓

Moncarapachense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Olhanense or draw
69%
Olhanense or Moncarapachense
72%
Draw or Moncarapachense
59%

Winning margin

Olhanense wins by 2+
18%
Moncarapachense wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Olhanense 1+ goals
71%
Olhanense 2+ goals
36%
Olhanense 3+ goals
13%
Moncarapachense 1+ goals
65%
Moncarapachense 2+ goals
28%
Moncarapachense 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Olhanense (draw refunded)
57%
Moncarapachense (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olhanense at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.90 · 10 matches

Moncarapachense away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.10 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olhanense attack 1.40 + Moncarapachense defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.25

Moncarapachense attack 1.20 + Olhanense defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Olhanense scores more
41%
level
28%
Moncarapachense scores more
31%

Olhanense at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Olhanense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Olhanense vs Moncarapachense

Olhanense beat Moncarapachense 1-0 in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group H on November 29, 2020.

The match was played at Estádio José Arcanjo in Olhão.