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Olhanense vs Juventude Évora — Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group H 2020

Olhanense
Olhanense
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Juventude Évora
Juventude Évora
2/21/2021Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group HCampeonato de Portugal Prio - Group H · Group H - 17Estádio da Nora

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Olhanense46%
×Draw26%
Juventude Évora27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olhanense
1.45
Juventude Évora
1.05

Olhanense creates 38% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 10 away

creates per match

Olhanense
1.40
Juventude Évora
1.20

allows per match

Olhanense
0.90
Juventude Évora
1.50

finishing

Olhanense+0.00on par
Juventude Évora+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olhanense ↓

Juventude Évora →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Olhanense or draw
73%
Olhanense or Juventude Évora
74%
Draw or Juventude Évora
54%

Winning margin

Olhanense wins by 2+
23%
Juventude Évora wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Olhanense 1+ goals
77%
Olhanense 2+ goals
42%
Olhanense 3+ goals
18%
Juventude Évora 1+ goals
65%
Juventude Évora 2+ goals
28%
Juventude Évora 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Olhanense (draw refunded)
63%
Juventude Évora (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olhanense at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.90 · 10 matches

Juventude Évora away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.50 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olhanense attack 1.40 + Juventude Évora defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.45

Juventude Évora attack 1.20 + Olhanense defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Olhanense scores more
46%
level
26%
Juventude Évora scores more
27%

Olhanense at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Olhanense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Olhanense vs Juventude Évora

Olhanense beat Juventude Évora 2-0 in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group H on February 21, 2021.

The match was played at Estádio da Nora in Albufeira.