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Olhanense vs Belenenses — Taça de Portugal 2018

Olhanense
Olhanense
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Belenenses
Belenenses
10/14/2022Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 3rd RoundEstádio José Arcanjo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Olhanense30%
×Draw28%
Belenenses42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olhanense
1.03
Belenenses
1.28

Belenenses creates 24% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 10 away

creates per match

Olhanense
0.67
Belenenses
1.90

allows per match

Olhanense
0.67
Belenenses
1.40

finishing

Olhanense+0.00on par
Belenenses+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olhanense ↓

Belenenses →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Olhanense or draw
58%
Olhanense or Belenenses
72%
Draw or Belenenses
70%

Winning margin

Olhanense wins by 2+
11%
Belenenses wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Olhanense 1+ goals
64%
Olhanense 2+ goals
28%
Olhanense 3+ goals
9%
Belenenses 1+ goals
72%
Belenenses 2+ goals
37%
Belenenses 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Olhanense (draw refunded)
41%
Belenenses (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olhanense at home — creates 0.67, concedes 0.67 · 6 matches

Belenenses away — creates 1.90, concedes 1.40 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olhanense attack 0.67 + Belenenses defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.03

Belenenses attack 1.90 + Olhanense defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Olhanense scores more
30%
level
28%
Belenenses scores more
42%

Belenenses at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Belenenses will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Taça de Portugal: Olhanense 0–2 Belenenses

Belenenses beat Olhanense 2-0 in Taça de Portugal on October 14, 2022.

The match was played at Estádio José Arcanjo in Olhão.