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Olhanense vs Aljustrelense — Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group H 2020

Olhanense
Olhanense
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Aljustrelense
Aljustrelense
2/7/2021Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group HCampeonato de Portugal Prio - Group H · Group H - 15Estádio da Nora

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Olhanense67%
×Draw21%
Aljustrelense12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olhanense
1.90
Aljustrelense
0.65

Olhanense creates 192% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 10 away

creates per match

Olhanense
1.40
Aljustrelense
0.40

allows per match

Olhanense
0.90
Aljustrelense
2.40

finishing

Olhanense+0.00on par
Aljustrelense+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olhanense ↓

Aljustrelense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Olhanense or draw
88%
Olhanense or Aljustrelense
79%
Draw or Aljustrelense
33%

Winning margin

Olhanense wins by 2+
41%
Aljustrelense wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Olhanense 1+ goals
85%
Olhanense 2+ goals
56%
Olhanense 3+ goals
29%
Aljustrelense 1+ goals
48%
Aljustrelense 2+ goals
14%
Aljustrelense 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Olhanense (draw refunded)
85%
Aljustrelense (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olhanense at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.90 · 10 matches

Aljustrelense away — creates 0.40, concedes 2.40 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olhanense attack 1.40 + Aljustrelense defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 1.90

Aljustrelense attack 0.40 + Olhanense defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Olhanense scores more
67%
level
21%
Aljustrelense scores more
12%

Olhanense at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Olhanense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group H: Olhanense 2–0 Aljustrelense

Olhanense beat Aljustrelense 2-0 in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group H on February 7, 2021.

The match was played at Estádio da Nora in Albufeira.