Oleksandria 0–2 Vorskla Poltava: Result & Stats

Oleksandria

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Vorskla Poltava

D. Puclin 52'

R. Stepanyuk 24'

9/19/2020

Premier League · Round 3KSK Nika

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Oleksandria43%

×Draw27%

Vorskla Poltava30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OleksandriaExpected goals in this matchVorskla Poltava

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.12

Oleksandria

1.38

Vorskla Poltava

1.12

Oleksandria creates 23% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 90 away

1.44

creates per match

0.92

1.32

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Oleksandria

1.44

Vorskla Poltava

0.92

allows per match

Oleksandria

1.32

Vorskla Poltava

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Oleksandria+0.00on par

Vorskla Poltava+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oleksandria ↓

Vorskla Poltava →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Oleksandria or draw

70%

Oleksandria or Vorskla Poltava

73%

Draw or Vorskla Poltava

57%

Winning margin

Oleksandria wins by 2+

20%

Vorskla Poltava wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Oleksandria 1+ goals

75%

Oleksandria 2+ goals

40%

Oleksandria 3+ goals

16%

Vorskla Poltava 1+ goals

67%

Vorskla Poltava 2+ goals

31%

Vorskla Poltava 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Oleksandria (draw refunded)

58%

Vorskla Poltava (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oleksandria at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.32 · 97 matches

Vorskla Poltava away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.32 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oleksandria attack 1.44 + Vorskla Poltava defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.38

Vorskla Poltava attack 0.92 + Oleksandria defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Oleksandria scores more

43%

level

27%

Vorskla Poltava scores more

30%

Oleksandria at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Oleksandria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

16'

22'

24'

38'

46'

52'

D. Puclin↳ I. Perduta

56'

P. Pashaev

56'

M. Tretyakov← B. Myshenko

64'

D. Ustymenko← V. Grytsuk

64'

M. Zaderaka← D. Miroshnichenko

64'

D. Bezborodko← A. Sitalo

67'

D. Shcherbak← R. Stepanyuk

71'

D. Vasin← V. Kulach

75'

E. Banada

78'

T. Stetskov← V. Luchkevych

88'

I. Pešić← I. Kane

88'

V. Sapai← D. Puclin

89'

P. Rebenok← N. Yakubu

90'

I. Pesic

Statistics

OleksandriaVorskla

Overview

4Corners3

Discipline

4Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards0