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Oleksandria vs Veres Rivne — Premier League 2019

Oleksandria
Oleksandria
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Veres Rivne
Veres Rivne
11/11/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 14CSC Nika

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Oleksandria27%
×Draw25%
Veres Rivne47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oleksandria
1.10
Veres Rivne
1.54

Veres Rivne creates 40% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 8 away

creates per match

Oleksandria
0.86
Veres Rivne
1.29

allows per match

Oleksandria
1.79
Veres Rivne
1.34

finishing

Oleksandria-0.11scores less
Veres Rivne-0.54scores less

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oleksandria ↓

Veres Rivne →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Oleksandria or draw
53%
Oleksandria or Veres Rivne
75%
Draw or Veres Rivne
73%

Winning margin

Oleksandria wins by 2+
10%
Veres Rivne wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Oleksandria 1+ goals
67%
Oleksandria 2+ goals
30%
Oleksandria 3+ goals
10%
Veres Rivne 1+ goals
79%
Veres Rivne 2+ goals
45%
Veres Rivne 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Oleksandria (draw refunded)
36%
Veres Rivne (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oleksandria at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.79 · 8 matches

Veres Rivne away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.34 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oleksandria attack 0.86 + Veres Rivne defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.10

Veres Rivne attack 1.29 + Oleksandria defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Oleksandria scores more
27%
level
25%
Veres Rivne scores more
47%

Veres Rivne at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Veres Rivne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Oleksandria 1–0 Veres Rivne

Oleksandria beat Veres Rivne 1-0 in Premier League on November 11, 2023.

The match was played at CSC Nika in Aleksandriya.