Oleksandria 1–2 FC Mariupol: Result & Stats

Oleksandria

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

FC Mariupol

D. Bezborodko 35'

O. Kashchuk 83'

P. Polegenko 28'

7/25/2020

Premier League · Europa League Play-offs - Semi-finalsCSC Nika Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Oleksandria44%

×Draw26%

FC Mariupol30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OleksandriaExpected goals in this matchFC Mariupol

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.14

Oleksandria

1.44

FC Mariupol

1.14

Oleksandria creates 26% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 54 away

1.44

creates per match

0.96

1.32

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Oleksandria

1.44

FC Mariupol

0.96

allows per match

Oleksandria

1.32

FC Mariupol

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Oleksandria+0.00on par

FC Mariupol+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oleksandria ↓

FC Mariupol →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Oleksandria or draw

70%

Oleksandria or FC Mariupol

74%

Draw or FC Mariupol

56%

Winning margin

Oleksandria wins by 2+

21%

FC Mariupol wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Oleksandria 1+ goals

76%

Oleksandria 2+ goals

42%

Oleksandria 3+ goals

18%

FC Mariupol 1+ goals

68%

FC Mariupol 2+ goals

32%

FC Mariupol 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Oleksandria (draw refunded)

59%

FC Mariupol (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oleksandria at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.32 · 97 matches

FC Mariupol away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.44 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oleksandria attack 1.44 + FC Mariupol defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.44

FC Mariupol attack 0.96 + Oleksandria defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Oleksandria scores more

44%

level

26%

FC Mariupol scores more

30%

Oleksandria at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Oleksandria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'

P. Polegenko↳ V. Churko

35'

D. Bezborodko↳ M. Tretyakov

46'

T. Stetskov← P. Pashaev

46'

N. Muravskyi← I. Tyshchenko

69'

R. Fomin

73'

V. Luchkevych← M. Zaderaka

73'

D. Bezborodko← A. Sitalo

78'

M. Chekh← D. Ignatenko

78'

V. Churko← O. Kashchuk

83'

O. Kashchuk↳ V. Fedorchuk

86'

E. Banada← V. Hrytsuk

89'

M. Tretyakov← B. Myshenko

90+2'

Y. Halchuk

90+4'

V. Fedorchuk← D. Sagutkin

Possession

Shots

Statistics

OleksandriaFC

Overview

42%Possession58%

7Total Shots7

5Corners5

17Fouls17

Shots

7Total Shots7

4On Target6

3Off Target1

Passing

42%Possession58%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

17Fouls17

0Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0

2Offsides1