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Oleksandria vs Dukagjini — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Oleksandria
Oleksandria
CANC
13:00
Dukagjini
Dukagjini
1/30/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Oleksandria51%
×Draw24%
Dukagjini25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oleksandria
1.69
Dukagjini
1.09

Oleksandria creates 55% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 4 away

creates per match

Oleksandria
2.12
Dukagjini
1.25

allows per match

Oleksandria
0.94
Dukagjini
1.25

finishing

Oleksandria+0.00on par
Dukagjini+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 52Under: 4852%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes: 54No: 4654%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oleksandria ↓

Dukagjini →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Oleksandria or draw
75%
Oleksandria or Dukagjini
76%
Draw or Dukagjini
49%

Winning margin

Oleksandria wins by 2+
28%
Dukagjini wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Oleksandria 1+ goals
82%
Oleksandria 2+ goals
50%
Oleksandria 3+ goals
24%
Dukagjini 1+ goals
66%
Dukagjini 2+ goals
30%
Dukagjini 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Oleksandria (draw refunded)
68%
Dukagjini (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oleksandria at home — creates 2.12, concedes 0.94 · 17 matches

Dukagjini away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oleksandria attack 2.12 + Dukagjini defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.69

Dukagjini attack 1.25 + Oleksandria defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Oleksandria scores more
51%
level
24%
Dukagjini scores more
25%

Oleksandria at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Oleksandria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oleksandria vs Dukagjini — Match Preview

Oleksandria face Dukagjini on January 30, 2026 in this Friendlies Clubs fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.