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Oleksandria vs Dinamo Batumi — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Oleksandria
Oleksandria
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Dinamo Batumi
Dinamo Batumi
M. Amaral 82'
2/13/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Oleksandria71%
×Draw18%
Dinamo Batumi11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oleksandria
2.19
Dinamo Batumi
0.72

Oleksandria creates 204% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 4 away

creates per match

Oleksandria
2.12
Dinamo Batumi
0.50

allows per match

Oleksandria
0.94
Dinamo Batumi
2.25

finishing

Oleksandria+0.00on par
Dinamo Batumi+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 55Under: 4555%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No: 54Yes: 4654%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oleksandria ↓

Dinamo Batumi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–17%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Oleksandria or draw
89%
Oleksandria or Dinamo Batumi
82%
Draw or Dinamo Batumi
29%

Winning margin

Oleksandria wins by 2+
47%
Dinamo Batumi wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Oleksandria 1+ goals
89%
Oleksandria 2+ goals
64%
Oleksandria 3+ goals
37%
Dinamo Batumi 1+ goals
51%
Dinamo Batumi 2+ goals
16%
Dinamo Batumi 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Oleksandria (draw refunded)
87%
Dinamo Batumi (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oleksandria at home — creates 2.12, concedes 0.94 · 17 matches

Dinamo Batumi away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oleksandria attack 2.12 + Dinamo Batumi defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.19

Dinamo Batumi attack 0.50 + Oleksandria defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Oleksandria scores more
71%
level
18%
Dinamo Batumi scores more
11%

Oleksandria at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Oleksandria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

82'
M. Amaral
Oleksandria
Dinamo
Kyrylo Nesterenko
Manager: Kyrylo Nesterenko
Giorgi Chiabrishvili
Manager: Giorgi Chiabrishvili

Match Recap: Oleksandria vs Dinamo Batumi

Oleksandria beat Dinamo Batumi 1-0 in Friendlies Clubs on February 13, 2026.

Goals: M. Amaral (82').