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Oleksandria vs Desna — Premier League 2026

Oleksandria
Oleksandria
CANC
14:00
Desna
Desna
4/30/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 27KSK Nika

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Oleksandria38%
×Draw25%
Desna37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oleksandria
1.41
Desna
1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 97 home / 42 away

creates per match

Oleksandria
1.44
Desna
1.43

allows per match

Oleksandria
1.32
Desna
1.38

finishing

Oleksandria+0.00on par
Desna+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 53Under: 4753%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 57No: 4357%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oleksandria ↓

Desna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Oleksandria or draw
63%
Oleksandria or Desna
75%
Draw or Desna
62%

Winning margin

Oleksandria wins by 2+
18%
Desna wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Oleksandria 1+ goals
76%
Oleksandria 2+ goals
41%
Oleksandria 3+ goals
17%
Desna 1+ goals
75%
Desna 2+ goals
40%
Desna 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Oleksandria (draw refunded)
51%
Desna (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oleksandria at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.32 · 97 matches

Desna away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.38 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oleksandria attack 1.44 + Desna defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.41

Desna attack 1.43 + Oleksandria defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Oleksandria scores more
38%
level
25%
Desna scores more
37%

Oleksandria at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Oleksandria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Oleksandria host Desna

April 30, 2022: Oleksandria take on Desna in Premier League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Oleksandria host Desna at KSK Nika.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.