Oleksandria U19 1–2 Minaj U19: Result & Stats

Oleksandria U19

FT

1 – 2

Minaj U19

9/15/2023

U19 League · Round 7KSK Olimp

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Oleksandria U1946%

×Draw25%

Minaj U1930%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Oleksandria U19Expected goals in this matchMinaj U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.23

Oleksandria U19

1.59

Minaj U19

1.23

Oleksandria U19 creates 29% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 15 away

1.31

creates per match

1.00

1.47

allows per match

1.87

creates per match

Oleksandria U19

1.31

Minaj U19

1.00

allows per match

Oleksandria U19

1.47

Minaj U19

1.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Oleksandria U19+0.00on par

Minaj U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oleksandria U19 ↓

Minaj U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Oleksandria U19 or draw

70%

Oleksandria U19 or Minaj U19

75%

Draw or Minaj U19

54%

Winning margin

Oleksandria U19 wins by 2+

23%

Minaj U19 wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Oleksandria U19 1+ goals

80%

Oleksandria U19 2+ goals

47%

Oleksandria U19 3+ goals

21%

Minaj U19 1+ goals

71%

Minaj U19 2+ goals

35%

Minaj U19 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Oleksandria U19 (draw refunded)

61%

Minaj U19 (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oleksandria U19 at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.47 · 45 matches

Minaj U19 away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.87 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oleksandria U19 attack 1.31 + Minaj U19 defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.59

Minaj U19 attack 1.00 + Oleksandria U19 defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Oleksandria U19 scores more

46%

level

25%

Minaj U19 scores more

30%

Oleksandria U19 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Oleksandria U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff