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Oleiros vs Vitória de Sernache — Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group E 2020

Oleiros
Oleiros
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Vitória de Sernache
Vitória de Sernache
2/14/2021Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group ECampeonato de Portugal Prio - Group E · Group E - 16Estádio Municipal de Oleiros

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Oleiros48%
×Draw23%
Vitória de Sernache29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oleiros
1.85
Vitória de Sernache
1.38

Oleiros creates 34% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 11 away

creates per match

Oleiros
1.80
Vitória de Sernache
1.55

allows per match

Oleiros
1.20
Vitória de Sernache
1.91

finishing

Oleiros+0.00on par
Vitória de Sernache+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oleiros ↓

Vitória de Sernache →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Oleiros or draw
71%
Oleiros or Vitória de Sernache
77%
Draw or Vitória de Sernache
52%

Winning margin

Oleiros wins by 2+
27%
Vitória de Sernache wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Oleiros 1+ goals
84%
Oleiros 2+ goals
55%
Oleiros 3+ goals
28%
Vitória de Sernache 1+ goals
75%
Vitória de Sernache 2+ goals
40%
Vitória de Sernache 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Oleiros (draw refunded)
63%
Vitória de Sernache (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oleiros at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.20 · 10 matches

Vitória de Sernache away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.91 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oleiros attack 1.80 + Vitória de Sernache defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.85

Vitória de Sernache attack 1.55 + Oleiros defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Oleiros scores more
48%
level
23%
Vitória de Sernache scores more
29%

Oleiros at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Oleiros will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group E: Oleiros 3–1 Vitória de Sernache

Oleiros beat Vitória de Sernache 3-1 in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group E on February 14, 2021.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal de Oleiros in Oleiros.