Oleiros 0–0 GIL Vicente: Result & Stats

Oleiros

Pens

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

GIL Vicente

11/20/2020

Taça de Portugal · 3rd RoundEstádio Municipal de Oleiros

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Oleiros28%

×Draw25%

GIL Vicente46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OleirosExpected goals in this matchGIL Vicente

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.55

Oleiros

1.15

GIL Vicente

1.55

GIL Vicente creates 35% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 13 away

1.67

creates per match

1.77

1.33

allows per match

0.62

creates per match

Oleiros

1.67

GIL Vicente

1.77

allows per match

Oleiros

1.33

GIL Vicente

0.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Oleiros+0.00on par

GIL Vicente+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oleiros ↓

GIL Vicente →

0–07%

0–110%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2–04%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

28%72%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Oleiros or draw

54%

Oleiros or GIL Vicente

75%

Draw or GIL Vicente

72%

Winning margin

Oleiros wins by 2+

11%

GIL Vicente wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Oleiros 1+ goals

68%

Oleiros 2+ goals

32%

Oleiros 3+ goals

11%

GIL Vicente 1+ goals

79%

GIL Vicente 2+ goals

46%

GIL Vicente 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Oleiros (draw refunded)

38%

GIL Vicente (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Oleiros at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

GIL Vicente away — creates 1.77, concedes 0.62 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Oleiros attack 1.67 + GIL Vicente defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 1.15

GIL Vicente attack 1.77 + Oleiros defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 46%?"

Oleiros scores more

28%

level

25%

GIL Vicente scores more

46%

GIL Vicente at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "GIL Vicente will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff