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Oleiros vs Carapinheirense — Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group E 2020

Oleiros
Oleiros
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Carapinheirense
Carapinheirense
12/13/2020Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group ECampeonato de Portugal Prio - Group E · Group E - 10Estádio Municipal de Oleiros

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Oleiros53%
×Draw24%
Carapinheirense23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oleiros
1.68
Carapinheirense
1.01

Oleiros creates 66% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 11 away

creates per match

Oleiros
1.80
Carapinheirense
0.82

allows per match

Oleiros
1.20
Carapinheirense
1.55

finishing

Oleiros+0.00on par
Carapinheirense+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oleiros ↓

Carapinheirense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Oleiros or draw
77%
Oleiros or Carapinheirense
76%
Draw or Carapinheirense
47%

Winning margin

Oleiros wins by 2+
29%
Carapinheirense wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Oleiros 1+ goals
81%
Oleiros 2+ goals
50%
Oleiros 3+ goals
24%
Carapinheirense 1+ goals
64%
Carapinheirense 2+ goals
27%
Carapinheirense 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Oleiros (draw refunded)
70%
Carapinheirense (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oleiros at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.20 · 10 matches

Carapinheirense away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.55 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oleiros attack 1.80 + Carapinheirense defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.68

Carapinheirense attack 0.82 + Oleiros defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Oleiros scores more
53%
level
24%
Carapinheirense scores more
23%

Oleiros at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Oleiros will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group E: Oleiros 3–1 Carapinheirense

Oleiros beat Carapinheirense 3-1 in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group E on December 13, 2020.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal de Oleiros in Oleiros.