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Oldham vs York — League Two 2024

Oldham
Oldham
Preview
15:00
York
York
12/26/2026League TwoLeague Two · Round 21Boundary Park
Big match
45%
Oldham
model favours
45%27%29%

York have scored in 35 games running

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
55%
under 2.5 goals
50%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Oldham45%
×Draw27%
York29%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oldham
1.41
York
1.08

Oldham creates 31% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 4 away

creates per match

Oldham
1.31
York
1.00

allows per match

Oldham
1.17
York
1.50

finishing

Oldham+0.00on par
York+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oldham ↓

York →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Oldham or draw
71%
Oldham or York
73%
Draw or York
55%

Winning margin

Oldham wins by 2+
21%
York wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Oldham 1+ goals
76%
Oldham 2+ goals
41%
Oldham 3+ goals
17%
York 1+ goals
66%
York 2+ goals
29%
York 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Oldham (draw refunded)
61%
York (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oldham at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.17 · 42 matches

York away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oldham attack 1.31 + York defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.41

York attack 1.00 + Oldham defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Oldham scores more
45%
level
27%
York scores more
29%

Oldham at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Oldham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 83% of York’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • When York score first, they win 83% of the time
  • York score first in only 34% of matches
  • 44% of York’s goals come after the 75th minute

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Oldham
WLLLL
York
LWDWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oldham vs York — Match Preview

Oldham face York on December 26, 2026 in this League Two fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Oldham host York at Boundary Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.