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Oldham vs Swindon Town — League Two 2018

Oldham
Oldham
Preview
14:00
Swindon Town
Swindon Town
8/29/2026League TwoLeague Two · Round 3Boundary Park
Big match
38%
Oldham
model favours
38%25%38%

Swindon Town score first in only 10% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
55%
over 2.5 goals
58%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 110+ matches

Oldham38%
×Draw25%
Swindon Town38%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oldham
1.44
Swindon Town
1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 110 home / 155 away

creates per match

Oldham
1.45
Swindon Town
1.45

allows per match

Oldham
1.42
Swindon Town
1.43

finishing

Oldham+0.00on par
Swindon Town+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oldham ↓

Swindon Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Oldham or draw
62%
Oldham or Swindon Town
75%
Draw or Swindon Town
62%

Winning margin

Oldham wins by 2+
18%
Swindon Town wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Oldham 1+ goals
76%
Oldham 2+ goals
42%
Oldham 3+ goals
18%
Swindon Town 1+ goals
76%
Swindon Town 2+ goals
42%
Swindon Town 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Oldham (draw refunded)
50%
Swindon Town (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oldham at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.42 · 110 matches

Swindon Town away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.43 · 155 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oldham attack 1.45 + Swindon Town defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.44

Swindon Town attack 1.45 + Oldham defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Oldham scores more
38%
level
25%
Swindon Town scores more
38%

Oldham at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Oldham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Swindon Town have scored in 10 games running
  • 70% of Swindon Town’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Swindon Town have won 5 of the last 7 meetings
  • Oldham fall short of their xG (1.2 vs 1.6 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Oldham
Attack-heavy
Swindon Town
Attack-heavy
48%PossessionBiggest gap54%
65%Pass accuracy72%
12.2Shots12.7
1.57xG1.66
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
OldhamSwindon Town

Head-to-head

7 previous meetings

0
Oldham
2
Draws
5
Swindon Town
Avg goals: 2.4BTTS: 43%
0–31–20–11–30–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Oldham
WLLLL
Town
LWLLD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oldham face Swindon Town (League Two)

League Two returns with Oldham hosting Swindon Town. Match starts August 29, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Oldham host Swindon Town at Boundary Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.