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Oldham vs Stevenage — League Two 2018

Oldham
Oldham
CANC
00:00
Stevenage
Stevenage
4/4/2020League TwoLeague Two · Round 42Boundary Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 110+ matches

Oldham42%
×Draw27%
Stevenage32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oldham
1.36
Stevenage
1.15

Oldham creates 18% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 112 away

creates per match

Oldham
1.45
Stevenage
0.87

allows per match

Oldham
1.42
Stevenage
1.28

finishing

Oldham+0.00on par
Stevenage+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oldham ↓

Stevenage →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Oldham or draw
68%
Oldham or Stevenage
73%
Draw or Stevenage
58%

Winning margin

Oldham wins by 2+
19%
Stevenage wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Oldham 1+ goals
74%
Oldham 2+ goals
39%
Oldham 3+ goals
16%
Stevenage 1+ goals
68%
Stevenage 2+ goals
32%
Stevenage 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Oldham (draw refunded)
57%
Stevenage (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oldham at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.42 · 110 matches

Stevenage away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.28 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oldham attack 1.45 + Stevenage defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.36

Stevenage attack 0.87 + Oldham defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Oldham scores more
42%
level
27%
Stevenage scores more
32%

Oldham at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Oldham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Oldham host Stevenage

April 4, 2020: Oldham take on Stevenage in League Two. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Oldham host Stevenage at Boundary Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.