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Oldham vs Scunthorpe — League Two 2018

Oldham
Oldham
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 0
Scunthorpe
Scunthorpe
Benny Couto 11'
R. Loft 77', 51'
M. Hippolyte 74'
12/26/2021League TwoLeague Two · Round 23Boundary Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Oldham50%
×Draw24%
Scunthorpe26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oldham
1.67
Scunthorpe
1.13

Oldham creates 48% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 64 away

creates per match

Oldham
1.45
Scunthorpe
0.83

allows per match

Oldham
1.42
Scunthorpe
1.89

finishing

Oldham+0.00on par
Scunthorpe+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oldham ↓

Scunthorpe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Oldham or draw
74%
Oldham or Scunthorpe
76%
Draw or Scunthorpe
50%

Winning margin

Oldham wins by 2+
27%
Scunthorpe wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Oldham 1+ goals
81%
Oldham 2+ goals
50%
Oldham 3+ goals
23%
Scunthorpe 1+ goals
68%
Scunthorpe 2+ goals
31%
Scunthorpe 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Oldham (draw refunded)
66%
Scunthorpe (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oldham at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.42 · 110 matches

Scunthorpe away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.89 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oldham attack 1.45 + Scunthorpe defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.67

Scunthorpe attack 0.83 + Oldham defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Oldham scores more
50%
level
24%
Scunthorpe scores more
26%

Oldham at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Oldham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
R. LoftScunthorpeScunthorpe · F
8.9

Match Events

9'
Hayden Hackney
11'
Benny Couto↳ H. Vaughan
46'
D. Keillor-Dunn← J. Stobbs
46'
R. Loft← A. Jarvis
51'
R. Loft↳ M. Hippolyte
55'
S. Hart← H. Vaughan
57'
Tom Pugh
74'
M. Hippolyte↳ R. Loft
77'
R. Loft↳ H. Hackney
80'
A. Kenyon← D. Green
83'
J. Luamba← R. Diarra

Possession

52%Oldham

Shots

14Oldham

Pass accuracy

50%Oldham

Statistics

OldhamScunthorpe
Overview
52%Possession48%
14Total Shots15
4Corners4
7Fouls17
Shots
14Total Shots15
5On Target5
5Off Target4
4Blocked6
7Inside Box12
7Outside Box3
Passing
52%Possession48%
366Total Passes340
251Accurate Passes237
69%Pass Accuracy70%
Goalkeeping
2Saves4
Discipline
7Fouls17
0Yellow Cards2
1Offsides3

League Two: Oldham 1–3 Scunthorpe

Scunthorpe beat Oldham 3-1 in League Two on December 26, 2021.

Goals: Benny Couto (11'), R. Loft (51', 77'), M. Hippolyte (74').

Oldham controlled possession (52%) and registered 14 shots to 15.

The match was played at Boundary Park in Oldham, Greater Manchester.