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Oldham vs Rochdale — League Two 2024

Oldham
Oldham
Preview
14:00
Rochdale
Rochdale
4/17/2027League TwoLeague Two · Round 42Boundary Park
39%
Oldham
model favours
39%28%33%

Oldham and Rochdale have never met before

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
57%
under 2.5 goals
49%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Oldham39%
×Draw28%
Rochdale33%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oldham
1.25
Rochdale
1.14

Oldham creates 10% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 6 away

creates per match

Oldham
1.34
Rochdale
1.17

allows per match

Oldham
1.11
Rochdale
1.17

finishing

Oldham+0.00on par
Rochdale+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oldham ↓

Rochdale →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Oldham or draw
67%
Oldham or Rochdale
72%
Draw or Rochdale
61%

Winning margin

Oldham wins by 2+
17%
Rochdale wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Oldham 1+ goals
71%
Oldham 2+ goals
36%
Oldham 3+ goals
13%
Rochdale 1+ goals
68%
Rochdale 2+ goals
32%
Rochdale 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Oldham (draw refunded)
54%
Rochdale (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oldham at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.11 · 35 matches

Rochdale away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oldham attack 1.34 + Rochdale defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.25

Rochdale attack 1.17 + Oldham defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Oldham scores more
39%
level
28%
Rochdale scores more
33%

Oldham at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Oldham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Oldham outscore their xG (1.6 vs 1.3 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Oldham
Defensively solid
Rochdale
Balanced
48%Possession52%
63%Pass accuracy70%
11.7ShotsBiggest gap10.5
1.28xG—
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
OldhamRochdale

Head-to-head

First-ever meeting

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Oldham
WLLLL
Rochdale
LDWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Oldham host Rochdale

April 17, 2027: Oldham take on Rochdale in League Two. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Oldham host Rochdale at Boundary Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.