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Oldham vs Northampton — League Two 2024

Oldham
Oldham
Preview
18:45
Northampton
Northampton
4/27/2027League TwoLeague Two · Round 44Boundary Park
40%
Oldham
model favours
40%26%34%

Oldham and Northampton have never met before

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
51%
under 2.5 goals
53%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Oldham40%
×Draw26%
Northampton34%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oldham
1.38
Northampton
1.25

Oldham creates 10% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 4 away

creates per match

Oldham
1.26
Northampton
1.50

allows per match

Oldham
1.00
Northampton
1.50

finishing

Oldham+0.00on par
Northampton+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oldham ↓

Northampton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Oldham or draw
66%
Oldham or Northampton
74%
Draw or Northampton
60%

Winning margin

Oldham wins by 2+
19%
Northampton wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Oldham 1+ goals
75%
Oldham 2+ goals
40%
Oldham 3+ goals
16%
Northampton 1+ goals
71%
Northampton 2+ goals
36%
Northampton 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Oldham (draw refunded)
54%
Northampton (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oldham at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.00 · 31 matches

Northampton away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oldham attack 1.26 + Northampton defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.38

Northampton attack 1.50 + Oldham defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Oldham scores more
40%
level
26%
Northampton scores more
34%

Oldham at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Oldham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Oldham outscore their xG (1.5 vs 1.2 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Oldham
WLLLL
Northampton
LLLLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Oldham host Northampton

April 27, 2027: Oldham take on Northampton in League Two. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Oldham host Northampton at Boundary Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.