Oldham 0–2 Northampton: Result & Stats | League Two

Oldham

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Northampton

L. Appéré 66'

J. Guthrie 44'

4/15/2022

League Two · Round 42Boundary Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Oldham36%

×Draw26%

Northampton39%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OldhamExpected goals in this matchNorthampton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.40

Oldham

1.33

Northampton

1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 110 home / 90 away

1.45

creates per match

1.38

1.42

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Oldham

1.45

Northampton

1.38

allows per match

Oldham

1.42

Northampton

1.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Oldham+0.00on par

Northampton+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oldham ↓

Northampton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Oldham or draw

61%

Oldham or Northampton

74%

Draw or Northampton

64%

Winning margin

Oldham wins by 2+

16%

Northampton wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Oldham 1+ goals

74%

Oldham 2+ goals

38%

Oldham 3+ goals

15%

Northampton 1+ goals

75%

Northampton 2+ goals

41%

Northampton 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Oldham (draw refunded)

48%

Northampton (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oldham at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.42 · 110 matches

Northampton away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.21 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oldham attack 1.45 + Northampton defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.33

Northampton attack 1.38 + Oldham defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Oldham scores more

36%

level

26%

Northampton scores more

39%

Northampton at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Northampton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

J. Guthrie

Northampton · D

7.6

Match Events

44'

J. Guthrie↳ S. Hoskins

64'

Jack Sowerby

66'

L. Appéré↳ J. Eppiah

67'

K. Jameson← A. Hunt

70'

J. Hopcutt← J. Luamba

73'

Benny Couto← T. Obadeyi

79'

84'

86'

88'

90'

90'

90'

90+5'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

OldhamNorthampton

Overview

46%Possession54%

9Total Shots13

3Corners4

10Fouls13

Shots

9Total Shots13

3On Target5

3Off Target4

3Blocked4

3Inside Box9

6Outside Box4

Passing

46%Possession54%

299Total Passes357

179Accurate Passes233

60%Pass Accuracy65%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

10Fouls13

1Yellow Cards4

1Red Cards0

3Offsides5