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Oldham vs Morecambe — League Two 2018

Oldham
Oldham
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Morecambe
Morecambe
9/21/2019League TwoLeague Two · Round 10Boundary Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 110+ matches

Oldham45%
×Draw25%
Morecambe30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oldham
1.60
Morecambe
1.26

Oldham creates 27% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 112 away

creates per match

Oldham
1.45
Morecambe
1.10

allows per match

Oldham
1.42
Morecambe
1.75

finishing

Oldham+0.00on par
Morecambe+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oldham ↓

Morecambe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Oldham or draw
70%
Oldham or Morecambe
75%
Draw or Morecambe
55%

Winning margin

Oldham wins by 2+
23%
Morecambe wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Oldham 1+ goals
80%
Oldham 2+ goals
47%
Oldham 3+ goals
22%
Morecambe 1+ goals
72%
Morecambe 2+ goals
36%
Morecambe 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Oldham (draw refunded)
60%
Morecambe (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oldham at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.42 · 110 matches

Morecambe away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.75 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oldham attack 1.45 + Morecambe defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.60

Morecambe attack 1.10 + Oldham defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Oldham scores more
45%
level
25%
Morecambe scores more
30%

Oldham at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Oldham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Oldham vs Morecambe

Oldham beat Morecambe 3-1 in League Two on September 21, 2019.

The match was played at Boundary Park in Oldham, Greater Manchester.