Oldham 2–3 Mansfield Town: Result & Stats

Oldham

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Mansfield Town

1/13/2021

League Two · Round 23Boundary Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 110+ matches

Oldham35%

×Draw26%

Mansfield Town40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OldhamExpected goals in this matchMansfield Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.40

Oldham

1.29

Mansfield Town

1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 110 home / 136 away

1.45

creates per match

1.38

1.42

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Oldham

1.45

Mansfield Town

1.38

allows per match

Oldham

1.42

Mansfield Town

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Oldham+0.00on par

Mansfield Town+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oldham ↓

Mansfield Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Oldham or draw

60%

Oldham or Mansfield Town

74%

Draw or Mansfield Town

65%

Winning margin

Oldham wins by 2+

15%

Mansfield Town wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Oldham 1+ goals

72%

Oldham 2+ goals

37%

Oldham 3+ goals

14%

Mansfield Town 1+ goals

75%

Mansfield Town 2+ goals

41%

Mansfield Town 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Oldham (draw refunded)

47%

Mansfield Town (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oldham at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.42 · 110 matches

Mansfield Town away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.13 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oldham attack 1.45 + Mansfield Town defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.29

Mansfield Town attack 1.38 + Oldham defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Oldham scores more

35%

level

26%

Mansfield Town scores more

40%

Mansfield Town at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Mansfield Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff