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Oldham vs Crawley Town — League Two 2024

Oldham
Oldham
Preview
15:00
Crawley Town
Crawley Town
10/31/2026League TwoLeague Two · Round 14Boundary Park
Big match
47%
Oldham
model favours
47%25%27%

Crawley Town win just 0% against the top half (vs 36% against the bottom)

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
51%
under 2.5 goals
53%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Oldham47%
×Draw25%
Crawley Town27%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oldham
1.54
Crawley Town
1.11

Oldham creates 39% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 32 away

creates per match

Oldham
1.34
Crawley Town
0.97

allows per match

Oldham
1.25
Crawley Town
1.75

finishing

Oldham+0.00on par
Crawley Town+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oldham ↓

Crawley Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Oldham or draw
73%
Oldham or Crawley Town
75%
Draw or Crawley Town
53%

Winning margin

Oldham wins by 2+
24%
Crawley Town wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Oldham 1+ goals
79%
Oldham 2+ goals
45%
Oldham 3+ goals
20%
Crawley Town 1+ goals
67%
Crawley Town 2+ goals
30%
Crawley Town 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Oldham (draw refunded)
63%
Crawley Town (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oldham at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.25 · 44 matches

Crawley Town away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.75 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oldham attack 1.34 + Crawley Town defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.54

Crawley Town attack 0.97 + Oldham defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Oldham scores more
47%
level
25%
Crawley Town scores more
27%

Oldham at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Oldham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams scored in 4 of the last 5 meetings
  • Oldham sit 10, Crawley Town 22 in the table
  • Crawley Town fall short of their xG (0.9 vs 2.1 expected)
  • Their last 5 meetings averaged 4.2 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Oldham
Defensively solid
Crawley Town
Balanced
47%Possession51%
63%Pass accuracy68%
12.0Shots11.7
1.43xGBiggest gap2.06
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
OldhamCrawley Town

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

2
Oldham
3
Draws
0
Crawley Town
Avg goals: 4.2BTTS: 80%
2–02–23–32–24–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Oldham
WLLLL
Town
DDDLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oldham face Crawley Town (League Two)

League Two returns with Oldham hosting Crawley Town. Match starts October 31, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Oldham host Crawley Town at Boundary Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.