Crawley Town 2–2 Oldham: Result & Stats

Crawley Town

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Oldham

K. Tshimanga 82'

R. Loft 18'

J. Stevens 68'

M. Mellon 50'

12/13/2025

League Two · Round 20The Broadfield Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Crawley Town40%

×Draw27%

Oldham33%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Crawley TownExpected goals in this matchOldham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.18

Crawley Town

1.33

Oldham

1.18

Crawley Town creates 13% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 43 away

1.26

creates per match

1.09

1.26

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Crawley Town

1.26

Oldham

1.09

allows per match

Crawley Town

1.26

Oldham

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Crawley Town+0.00on par

Oldham+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crawley Town ↓

Oldham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Crawley Town or draw

67%

Crawley Town or Oldham

73%

Draw or Oldham

60%

Winning margin

Crawley Town wins by 2+

18%

Oldham wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Crawley Town 1+ goals

74%

Crawley Town 2+ goals

38%

Crawley Town 3+ goals

15%

Oldham 1+ goals

69%

Oldham 2+ goals

33%

Oldham 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Crawley Town (draw refunded)

55%

Oldham (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crawley Town at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.26 · 31 matches

Oldham away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.40 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crawley Town attack 1.26 + Oldham defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.33

Oldham attack 1.09 + Crawley Town defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Crawley Town scores more

40%

level

27%

Oldham scores more

33%

Crawley Town at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Crawley Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

R. Loft

Crawley Town · F

8.2

Match Events

8'

J. Leake← L. Hannant

18'

R. Loft

46'

J. Stevens← J. Caprice

50'

M. Mellon↳ J. Stevens

54'

L. Watson← K. Dixon

66'

G. Holohan← R. Brown

67'

Jake Leake

67'

J. Garner← M. Fondop-Talum

68'

J. Stevens↳ M. Mellon

74'

K. Tshimanga← A. Adeyemo

74'

D. Pereira← J. Roles

82'

K. Tshimanga↳ D. Pereira

90+6'

Josh Flint

90+5'

Joe Garner

90+3'

Jack Stevens

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CrawleyOldham

Overview

56%Possession44%

19Total Shots19

2.06Expected Goals (xG)1.41

4Corners7

16Fouls13

Shots

19Total Shots19

5On Target8

8Off Target5

6Blocked6

12Inside Box10

7Outside Box9

Passing

56%Possession44%

363Total Passes283

270Accurate Passes181

74%Pass Accuracy64%

Goalkeeping

6Saves3

Discipline

16Fouls13

1Yellow Cards3

2Offsides5