Oldham 2–3 Crawley Town: Result & Stats

Oldham

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Crawley Town

9/26/2020

League Two · Round 3Boundary Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 110+ matches

Oldham44%

×Draw25%

Crawley Town31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OldhamExpected goals in this matchCrawley Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.25

Oldham

1.54

Crawley Town

1.25

Oldham creates 23% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 158 away

1.45

creates per match

1.08

1.42

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Oldham

1.45

Crawley Town

1.08

allows per match

Oldham

1.42

Crawley Town

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Oldham+0.00on par

Crawley Town+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oldham ↓

Crawley Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Oldham or draw

69%

Oldham or Crawley Town

75%

Draw or Crawley Town

56%

Winning margin

Oldham wins by 2+

22%

Crawley Town wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Oldham 1+ goals

79%

Oldham 2+ goals

45%

Oldham 3+ goals

20%

Crawley Town 1+ goals

71%

Crawley Town 2+ goals

36%

Crawley Town 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Oldham (draw refunded)

59%

Crawley Town (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oldham at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.42 · 110 matches

Crawley Town away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.63 · 158 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oldham attack 1.45 + Crawley Town defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.54

Crawley Town attack 1.08 + Oldham defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Oldham scores more

44%

level

25%

Crawley Town scores more

31%

Oldham at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Oldham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff