Oldham 1–2 Carlisle: Result & Stats | League Two

Oldham

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Carlisle

H. Hope 45+4'

M. Feeney 90+4'

O. Patrick 48'

3/5/2022

League Two · Round 35Boundary Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 110+ matches

Oldham41%

×Draw26%

Carlisle33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OldhamExpected goals in this matchCarlisle

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.23

Oldham

1.42

Carlisle

1.23

Oldham creates 15% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 134 away

1.45

creates per match

1.04

1.42

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Oldham

1.45

Carlisle

1.04

allows per match

Oldham

1.42

Carlisle

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Oldham+0.00on par

Carlisle+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oldham ↓

Carlisle →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Oldham or draw

67%

Oldham or Carlisle

74%

Draw or Carlisle

59%

Winning margin

Oldham wins by 2+

20%

Carlisle wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Oldham 1+ goals

76%

Oldham 2+ goals

41%

Oldham 3+ goals

17%

Carlisle 1+ goals

71%

Carlisle 2+ goals

35%

Carlisle 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Oldham (draw refunded)

56%

Carlisle (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oldham at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.42 · 110 matches

Carlisle away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.38 · 134 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oldham attack 1.45 + Carlisle defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.42

Carlisle attack 1.04 + Oldham defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Oldham scores more

41%

level

26%

Carlisle scores more

33%

Oldham at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Oldham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16

M. Feeney

Carlisle · D

7.5

Match Events

26'

27'

27'

27'

36'

36'

45+4'

48'

O. Patrick↳ K. Dennis

69'

T. Obadeyi← D. Bahamboula

73'

T. Sho-Silva← K. Dennis

73'

80'

87'

90+5'

90+4'

M. Feeney↳ C. Guy

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

OldhamCarlisle

Overview

53%Possession47%

12Total Shots15

5Corners4

9Fouls11

Shots

12Total Shots15

3On Target5

9Off Target6

0Blocked4

12Inside Box9

0Outside Box6

Passing

53%Possession47%

363Total Passes332

208Accurate Passes184

57%Pass Accuracy55%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

9Fouls11

4Yellow Cards3