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Oldham vs Bristol Rovers — League Two 2024

Oldham
Oldham
Preview
19:45
Bristol Rovers
Bristol Rovers
12/1/2026League TwoLeague Two · Round 18Boundary Park
Big match
44%
Oldham
model favours
44%26%29%

Bristol Rovers win just 21% against the top half (vs 64% against the bottom)

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
54%
under 2.5 goals
51%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Oldham44%
×Draw26%
Bristol Rovers29%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oldham
1.42
Bristol Rovers
1.10

Oldham creates 29% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 27 away

creates per match

Oldham
1.32
Bristol Rovers
1.11

allows per match

Oldham
1.10
Bristol Rovers
1.52

finishing

Oldham+0.00on par
Bristol Rovers+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oldham ↓

Bristol Rovers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Oldham or draw
71%
Oldham or Bristol Rovers
74%
Draw or Bristol Rovers
56%

Winning margin

Oldham wins by 2+
21%
Bristol Rovers wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Oldham 1+ goals
76%
Oldham 2+ goals
41%
Oldham 3+ goals
17%
Bristol Rovers 1+ goals
67%
Bristol Rovers 2+ goals
30%
Bristol Rovers 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Oldham (draw refunded)
60%
Bristol Rovers (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oldham at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.10 · 40 matches

Bristol Rovers away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.52 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oldham attack 1.32 + Bristol Rovers defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.42

Bristol Rovers attack 1.11 + Oldham defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Oldham scores more
44%
level
26%
Bristol Rovers scores more
29%

Oldham at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Oldham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Oldham outscore their xG (1.7 vs 1.3 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Oldham
Balanced
Bristol Rovers
Balanced
47%Possession52%
63%Pass accuracy66%
11.5Shots12.9
1.25xGBiggest gap1.09
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
OldhamBristol Rovers

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

2
Oldham
2
Draws
1
Bristol Rovers
Avg goals: 1.6BTTS: 40%
2–00–02–10–11–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Oldham
WLLLL
Rovers
LWWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oldham face Bristol Rovers (League Two)

League Two returns with Oldham hosting Bristol Rovers. Match starts December 1, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Oldham host Bristol Rovers at Boundary Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.