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Oldham vs Bristol Rovers — League Two 2024

Oldham
Oldham
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Bristol Rovers
Bristol Rovers
M. Fondop-Talum 59'
K. Drummond 1'
2/17/2026League TwoLeague Two · Round 33Boundary Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Oldham44%
×Draw27%
Bristol Rovers30%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oldham
1.41
Bristol Rovers
1.11

Oldham creates 27% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 26 away

creates per match

Oldham
1.31
Bristol Rovers
1.12

allows per match

Oldham
1.10
Bristol Rovers
1.50

finishing

Oldham+0.00on par
Bristol Rovers+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oldham ↓

Bristol Rovers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Oldham or draw
70%
Oldham or Bristol Rovers
73%
Draw or Bristol Rovers
56%

Winning margin

Oldham wins by 2+
21%
Bristol Rovers wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Oldham 1+ goals
76%
Oldham 2+ goals
41%
Oldham 3+ goals
17%
Bristol Rovers 1+ goals
67%
Bristol Rovers 2+ goals
30%
Bristol Rovers 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Oldham (draw refunded)
60%
Bristol Rovers (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oldham at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.10 · 39 matches

Bristol Rovers away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.50 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oldham attack 1.31 + Bristol Rovers defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.41

Bristol Rovers attack 1.12 + Oldham defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Oldham scores more
44%
level
27%
Bristol Rovers scores more
30%

Oldham at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Oldham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
M. HudsonOldhamOldham · G
7.5

Match Events

1'
K. Drummond↳ M. Fondop-Talum
18'
Kane Thompson-Sommers
28'
Kane Drummond
28'
Tom Lockyer
30'
Tom Pett
37'
Calum Kavanagh
47'
Alfie Kilgour
59'
M. Fondop-Talum
60'
R. Woods← C. Kavanagh
66'
T. Moore← T. Lockyer
68'
Luke Thomas
72'
M. Rijks← F. Cavegn
72'
Y. Akhamrich← L. Thomas
72'
E. Harrison← J. Quigley
79'
L. Hannant← J. Stevens
80'
R. De Havilland← T. Leigh
85'
J. Garner← M. Fondop-Talum
85'
O. Hammond← K. Drummond

Possession

40%Oldham

Shots

7Oldham

Pass accuracy

47%Oldham

Statistics

OldhamBristol
Overview
40%Possession60%
7Total Shots19
2Corners6
8Fouls15
Shots
7Total Shots19
6On Target4
1Off Target9
1Blocked6
5Inside Box12
2Outside Box7
Passing
40%Possession60%
310Total Passes472
194Accurate Passes340
63%Pass Accuracy72%
Goalkeeping
4Saves4
Discipline
8Fouls15
3Yellow Cards4
1Offsides1

Match Recap: Oldham vs Bristol Rovers

Oldham beat Bristol Rovers 2-0 in League Two on February 17, 2026.

Goals: K. Drummond (1'), M. Fondop-Talum (59').

Bristol Rovers controlled possession (60%) and registered 19 shots to 7.

The match was played at Boundary Park in Oldham.