Vatanspor 3–1 Holstebro: Result & Stats

Vatanspor

FT

3 – 1

Holstebro

8/6/2016

Denmark Series - Group 4 · Round 1Sødalskolen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Vatanspor45%

×Draw20%

Holstebro35%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VatansporExpected goals in this matchHolstebro

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.35

2.05

Vatanspor

2.35

Holstebro

2.05

Vatanspor creates 15% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 10 away

2.50

creates per match

2.20

1.90

allows per match

2.20

creates per match

Vatanspor

2.50

Holstebro

2.20

allows per match

Vatanspor

1.90

Holstebro

2.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vatanspor+0.00on par

Holstebro+0.00on par

Total goals

Over81
Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes79
No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vatanspor ↓

Holstebro →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–16%

1–26%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

81%19%3.5

63%37%4.5

44%56%

Double chance

Vatanspor or draw

65%

Vatanspor or Holstebro

80%

Draw or Holstebro

55%

Winning margin

Vatanspor wins by 2+

27%

Holstebro wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Vatanspor 1+ goals

90%

Vatanspor 2+ goals

68%

Vatanspor 3+ goals

41%

Holstebro 1+ goals

87%

Holstebro 2+ goals

61%

Holstebro 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

Vatanspor (draw refunded)

57%

Holstebro (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

73%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vatanspor at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.90 · 10 matches

Holstebro away — creates 2.20, concedes 2.20 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vatanspor attack 2.50 + Holstebro defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 2.35

Holstebro attack 2.20 + Vatanspor defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 2.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Vatanspor scores more

45%

level

20%

Holstebro scores more

35%

Vatanspor at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Vatanspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff