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Olbia vs Atletico Uri — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Olbia
Olbia
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Atletico Uri
Atletico Uri
12/15/2024Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Group G - 16Stadio Bruno Nespoli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Olbia45%
×Draw26%
Atletico Uri30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olbia
1.50
Atletico Uri
1.17

Olbia creates 28% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 68 away

creates per match

Olbia
1.29
Atletico Uri
0.87

allows per match

Olbia
1.47
Atletico Uri
1.71

finishing

Olbia+0.00on par
Atletico Uri+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olbia ↓

Atletico Uri →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Olbia or draw
70%
Olbia or Atletico Uri
74%
Draw or Atletico Uri
55%

Winning margin

Olbia wins by 2+
22%
Atletico Uri wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Olbia 1+ goals
78%
Olbia 2+ goals
44%
Olbia 3+ goals
19%
Atletico Uri 1+ goals
69%
Atletico Uri 2+ goals
33%
Atletico Uri 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Olbia (draw refunded)
60%
Atletico Uri (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olbia at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.47 · 34 matches

Atletico Uri away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.71 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olbia attack 1.29 + Atletico Uri defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.50

Atletico Uri attack 0.87 + Olbia defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Olbia scores more
45%
level
26%
Atletico Uri scores more
30%

Olbia at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Olbia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Olbia vs Atletico Uri

Olbia beat Atletico Uri 2-0 in Serie D - Girone G on December 15, 2024.

The match was played at Stadio Bruno Nespoli in Olbia.