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Olímpico Totana vs Unión Molinense — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Olímpico Totana
Olímpico Totana
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Unión Molinense
Unión Molinense
5/17/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Semi-finals

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Olímpico Totana34%
×Draw29%
Unión Molinense37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olímpico Totana
1.08
Unión Molinense
1.14

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 46 home / 67 away

creates per match

Olímpico Totana
1.20
Unión Molinense
1.18

allows per match

Olímpico Totana
1.09
Unión Molinense
0.97

finishing

Olímpico Totana+0.00on par
Unión Molinense+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olímpico Totana ↓

Unión Molinense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Olímpico Totana or draw
63%
Olímpico Totana or Unión Molinense
71%
Draw or Unión Molinense
66%

Winning margin

Olímpico Totana wins by 2+
13%
Unión Molinense wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Olímpico Totana 1+ goals
66%
Olímpico Totana 2+ goals
29%
Olímpico Totana 3+ goals
10%
Unión Molinense 1+ goals
68%
Unión Molinense 2+ goals
32%
Unión Molinense 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Olímpico Totana (draw refunded)
48%
Unión Molinense (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olímpico Totana at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.09 · 46 matches

Unión Molinense away — creates 1.18, concedes 0.97 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olímpico Totana attack 1.20 + Unión Molinense defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.08

Unión Molinense attack 1.18 + Olímpico Totana defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Olímpico Totana scores more
34%
level
29%
Unión Molinense scores more
37%

Unión Molinense at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Unión Molinense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: Olímpico Totana 0–0 Unión Molinense

Olímpico Totana and Unión Molinense drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on May 17, 2026.