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Okzhetpes vs Kyzyl-Zhar II — 1. Division 2019

Okzhetpes
Okzhetpes
FT
2 – 1
Kyzyl-Zhar II
Kyzyl-Zhar II
9/11/20211. Division1. Division · Round 16Stadion Oqjetpes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Okzhetpes87%
×Draw9%
Kyzyl-Zhar II4%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Okzhetpes
3.55
Kyzyl-Zhar II
0.71

Okzhetpes creates 400% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 11 away

creates per match

Okzhetpes
3.37
Kyzyl-Zhar II
0.73

allows per match

Okzhetpes
0.68
Kyzyl-Zhar II
3.73

finishing

Okzhetpes+0.00on par
Kyzyl-Zhar II+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Okzhetpes ↓

Kyzyl-Zhar II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–14%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–17%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–010%
4–17%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (11%) · grid covers 77% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Okzhetpes or draw
96%
Okzhetpes or Kyzyl-Zhar II
91%
Draw or Kyzyl-Zhar II
13%

Winning margin

Okzhetpes wins by 2+
72%
Kyzyl-Zhar II wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Okzhetpes 1+ goals
97%
Okzhetpes 2+ goals
86%
Okzhetpes 3+ goals
67%
Kyzyl-Zhar II 1+ goals
51%
Kyzyl-Zhar II 2+ goals
16%
Kyzyl-Zhar II 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Okzhetpes (draw refunded)
95%
Kyzyl-Zhar II (draw refunded)
5%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Okzhetpes at home — creates 3.37, concedes 0.68 · 38 matches

Kyzyl-Zhar II away — creates 0.73, concedes 3.73 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Okzhetpes attack 3.37 + Kyzyl-Zhar II defence 3.73 → ÷2 → 3.55

Kyzyl-Zhar II attack 0.73 + Okzhetpes defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 87%?"

Okzhetpes scores more
87%
level
9%
Kyzyl-Zhar II scores more
4%

Okzhetpes at 87% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 87% does not mean "Okzhetpes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Division: Okzhetpes 2–1 Kyzyl-Zhar II

Okzhetpes beat Kyzyl-Zhar II 2-1 in 1. Division on September 11, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Oqjetpes in Kokshetau.