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Okzhetpes vs AKAS — Cup 2019

Okzhetpes
Okzhetpes
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
AKAS
AKAS
N. Idrisov 41'
D. Bitusupov 14'
3/11/2024CupCup · Qualifying Round - 1BIIK Futbol'noye Pole

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Okzhetpes42%
×Draw24%
AKAS34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Okzhetpes
1.67
AKAS
1.48

Okzhetpes creates 13% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

creates per match

Okzhetpes
1.33
AKAS
0.80

allows per match

Okzhetpes
2.17
AKAS
2.00

finishing

Okzhetpes+0.00on par
AKAS+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Okzhetpes ↓

AKAS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Okzhetpes or draw
66%
Okzhetpes or AKAS
76%
Draw or AKAS
58%

Winning margin

Okzhetpes wins by 2+
22%
AKAS wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Okzhetpes 1+ goals
81%
Okzhetpes 2+ goals
50%
Okzhetpes 3+ goals
23%
AKAS 1+ goals
77%
AKAS 2+ goals
43%
AKAS 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Okzhetpes (draw refunded)
55%
AKAS (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Okzhetpes at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.17 · 6 matches

AKAS away — creates 0.80, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Okzhetpes attack 1.33 + AKAS defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.67

AKAS attack 0.80 + Okzhetpes defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Okzhetpes scores more
42%
level
24%
AKAS scores more
34%

Okzhetpes at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Okzhetpes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'
D. Bitusupov
41'
N. Idrisov
46'
Z. Sultaniyazov← Z. Sultaniyazov
46'
S. Gridin← S. Gridin
46'
A. Amirzhanov← A. Amirzhanov

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Okzhetpes 1–1 AKAS

Okzhetpes and AKAS drew 1-1 in Cup on March 11, 2024.

Goals: D. Bitusupov (14'), N. Idrisov (41').

The match was played at BIIK Futbol'noye Pole in Shymkent.