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Okwawu vs WAFA — Division One League 2025

Okwawu
Okwawu
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
WAFA
WAFA
1/18/2026Division One LeagueDivision One League · Round 16

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Okwawu39%
×Draw28%
WAFA33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Okwawu
1.27
WAFA
1.14

Okwawu creates 11% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

creates per match

Okwawu
1.27
WAFA
1.07

allows per match

Okwawu
1.20
WAFA
1.27

finishing

Okwawu+0.00on par
WAFA+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Okwawu ↓

WAFA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Okwawu or draw
67%
Okwawu or WAFA
72%
Draw or WAFA
61%

Winning margin

Okwawu wins by 2+
17%
WAFA wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Okwawu 1+ goals
72%
Okwawu 2+ goals
36%
Okwawu 3+ goals
14%
WAFA 1+ goals
68%
WAFA 2+ goals
32%
WAFA 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Okwawu (draw refunded)
54%
WAFA (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Okwawu at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.20 · 15 matches

WAFA away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.27 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Okwawu attack 1.27 + WAFA defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.27

WAFA attack 1.07 + Okwawu defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Okwawu scores more
39%
level
28%
WAFA scores more
33%

Okwawu at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Okwawu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division One League: Okwawu 1–1 WAFA

Okwawu and WAFA drew 1-1 in Division One League on January 18, 2026.